consortiums

PROJECT 11

PERSONNEL RECRUITING

Disequilibrium Models of Enlistment Supply and Recruiting

Walter Mayer
School of Business Administration,
University of Mississippi

Proposed Grant $62,904

Abstract:
Reliable estimates of the relationship between enlistments and factors that affect it are required to maintain desired levels of high-quality enlistments. Previous studies

of enlistment supply rely on estimation techniques that assume equilibrium in the market for recruits. Equilibrium assumptions greatly simplify estimation and statistical inference, but are very restrictive. Failure to control for disequilibrium in the market for recruits can potentially bias estimates of supply elasticity. The purpose of the project is to develop a model to analyze enlistment supply and recruiter behavior that allows for the possibility that wages and recruiting effort do not adjust sufficiently fast for equilibrium to occur. I plan to estimate the model using aggregate enlistment data by both maximum likelihood and the semiparametric methods. Monte Carlo experiments are also planned. This project will continue the work performed under an ONR grant from May 1, 2001f to September
30, 2002.